Decoupling
New Chart: Correlation Bitcoin vs. Gold
Dear Bitcoiners,
This week, the bulls took over! Bitcoin climbed back to the STH cost basis, and strong net ETF inflows returned. As this consolidation continues, price action is bringing us to the key levels we discussed last week. In this newsletter, we’ll discuss Bitcoin’s recent 'decoupling' behavior, examine its correlation to Gold, and introduce the new charts added to the Bitcoin Strategy Platform.
👉 Announcement: Last Tuesday, I recorded a new Bitcoin Frontier episode with Joe Burnett from Unchained. We covered a lot of ground: Bitcoin and macro, the trade war, S&P 500, Gold, the 4-Year Cycle, STH behavior, and the latest consolidation progress. The episode drops next Tuesday. Stay tuned!
‘Decoupling’
Stocks down, Bitcoin up. Gold up, Bitcoin up. This week, we saw moments where Bitcoin behaved this way, briefly breaking from its usual pattern. Is Bitcoin decoupling? Not yet. But this is how it starts. One-off moves become more frequent. Over time, real decoupling can begin to emerge.
With rising passive demand, continued purchases by (Micro)Strategy, and companies like Twenty One Capital following the Strategy playbook, we’re entering a transition phase. In times of uncertainty, Bitcoin may increasingly behave as a risk-off asset, moving with Gold. During periods of market certainty, such as rate cuts or renewed money printing, it could continue to rise alongside equities.
While exciting, this transition (or decoupling) will likely take time, as we’re still in the early stages of passive flows. For now, Bitcoin continues to show a strong correlation to equities (risk-on), and its relationship with gold remains inconsistent.
Platform Upgrade: Bitcoin vs. Gold Correlation
The Bitcoin Strategy Platform, available to all paid subscribers, now includes the Bitcoin vs. Gold correlation, alongside the existing S&P 500 correlation chart. These new tools will help us monitor decoupling trends over time.
New Chart: Bitcoin vs. Gold Correlation
👉 Key Insight: Unlike the steady positive correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, the Bitcoin-Gold correlation fluctuates heavily. Roughly 50% of the time, it is positive, and 50% negative. This signals no strong directional correlation yet.
While the correlation with Gold might grow stronger over time, as Bitcoin gains broader recognition as digital gold, there’s an important distinction to make. Bitcoin is driven by optimism and liquidity, whereas Gold is typically driven by fear and chaos.
New Chart: Bitcoin vs. Gold RSI
Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) chart for Bitcoin vs. Gold has been added to the Bitcoin Strategy Platform. It’s now available for both the S&P 500 and Gold.
The 12-month RSI of Bitcoin suggests a potential bottom, as it’s currently moving in the same direction as Gold.
To Conclude
The new correlation and RSI charts of Bitcoin vs. Gold are now live alongside the existing S&P 500 charts! They are great tools to track Bitcoin’s decoupling behavior.
I hope you enjoy this latest upgrade to the Bitcoin Strategy Platform. We’ll discuss these charts, and much more, in Tuesday’s podcast episode with Joe Burnett. 👊
As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts. Feel free to leave a comment! 🧡
Until next Tuesday, 🫡
–Root
Appreciate the new charts Root.👊